→ Each mistake updates your probability model.
She introduces the exercise: rate your certainty on a scale of 1 to 10. Then track how often you’re right. Most people discover they’re overconfident. The goal isn’t to eliminate uncertainty—it’s to map it accurately. thinking in bets annie duke pdf
I hope this helps! Let me know if you have any questions or if you'd like me to expand on any of the points. → Each mistake updates your probability model
(imagining a success and working backward) helps you plan for various future scenarios. Verbal to Visual Accessing the Content Most people discover they’re overconfident
: Sarah needs to hire a new lead developer. She spends weeks vetting candidates, checking references, and conducting technical interviews. She chooses the candidate who is a perfect fit 90% of the time. One week in, the new hire has a family emergency and must leave the country. The Lesson